India's Foriegn Policy...
You won't find it on twitter and you won't find it on Face book - India's foreign policy equations. They remain a mystery, even a month after the new government took over. It's not their fault. The previous government was apparently clueless for 10 years. Again, perhaps, not entirely their fault. Foreign policy is an evolving phenomena. It's like a living breathing being. It responds and occasionally reacts to events that end up being historic. The questions is, are these responses calibrated or impulsive and are they aligned to the long term goals that India has set itself, which also seem to be a classified secret. Foreign Relationship equations like those in algebra and calculus are complex and double sided, but almost never balanced, their inequality bracketed by smiles and handshakes. The challenge before India is to remove the brackets and move from weak handshakes to power hugs, and tilt the equations ever so slightly in India's favor. The endeavor must be to ensure that dialogue leads to QED.
None of this has happened, or is likely to happen. On the other hand India has reached out to its neighbors, in some cases against the wishes of its constituent states, developed a dialogue with China, the foreign minister will be visiting Bangladesh on the 25th of June and the prime minister, Japan and possibly China and the US for a UN Convention later this year during which he will hold bi lateral talks with several heads of state including the US.
Its territorial integrity is threatened on two fronts the North Western and north Eastern, by Pakistan and China respectively. Any erosion of territory, would be domestically disastrous, and globally catastrophical. Since it's obvious to all stake holders, that overt aggression will be repulsed, their strategy has shifted to targeting India's territorial safety, from within, promoting divisions among India's diversified demography, to ultimately impact the territorial integrity. India's territorial economy is strong, and has remained that way for a long time. It has helped India overcome many challenges on the other two fronts vz. territorial integrity and territorial safety. However it has taken a beating in the last two years and needs to regain its growth glory to prevent inroads into its body and heart. India, however also needs to keep its supply lines open, to meet energy and infrastructure needs vital for development.
With these keystones guiding India's foreign policy, India will necessarily have to conduct its foreign policy over three concentric circles consisting of a. its neighborhood including Afghanistan and Burma, b. the Far East, US, Russia, China, Japan, the Middle East and c. The Americas except the US, the EU, Australasia. The Concentric Circles help India focus its efforts based on their importance in the relationship stakes.
You won't find it on twitter and you won't find it on Face book - India's foreign policy equations. They remain a mystery, even a month after the new government took over. It's not their fault. The previous government was apparently clueless for 10 years. Again, perhaps, not entirely their fault. Foreign policy is an evolving phenomena. It's like a living breathing being. It responds and occasionally reacts to events that end up being historic. The questions is, are these responses calibrated or impulsive and are they aligned to the long term goals that India has set itself, which also seem to be a classified secret. Foreign Relationship equations like those in algebra and calculus are complex and double sided, but almost never balanced, their inequality bracketed by smiles and handshakes. The challenge before India is to remove the brackets and move from weak handshakes to power hugs, and tilt the equations ever so slightly in India's favor. The endeavor must be to ensure that dialogue leads to QED.
India's foreign Policy Ride...
India's Foreign policy has, since independence, like a roller coaster, had its ups and downs. Unfortunately, the tracks seem to have headed nowhere and in the last few years, have not even been renewed. The network is getting frayed.
India's foreign policy has always been propelled by pessimism. It considered itself non aligned when it was not really non aligned. It considered itself a third world country when it was far ahead of its peers in the third world. It followed a policy that reflected meekness, when it was not really weak. It was aligned to Russia or the then Soviet Union, when in reality, it was a developing country that was well beyond the third world, and lastly India was never militarily weak - it was on its way to becoming a nuclear and missile power. It always had a chance to operate from the realm of positivity, but India fluffed it.
As the world's geography changed, India seized its chance - Over the last ten years, it shifted its focus from confronting Pakistan and China, and hand holding Sri Lanka and Nepal, to building a strong strategic economic and political partnership with the US, to counter Pakistan's influence with it, and use it as a prop to prevent Chinese hegemony, both virtual and real. With this, its Middle East policy, gently embraced Israel to meet defense needs and Japan to meet its Technological and financial needs. In the bargain it reminded the G20 that it has a vital role to play in world affairs, even as it struggled with its domestic policies.
India is now an economic powerhouse with a huge consumer market created by its aspirational lower and middle class, a large English speaking, educated and intelligent population. Its needs have changed, so has its government and the world around it.
With Modi taking over as the Prime Minister, India's foreign policy is expected to see a shift in direction, if not priorities. The BJP portrayed Modi as India's strong man and he didn't deny it. However at no stage did he lay down the contours of India's foreign policy in the many enthralling rallies or the comparatively fewer interviews he addressed. He did however, reiterate an important truth that was intended to be the corner stone of his foreign policy - when guns boom, you can?t hear each other talk; this in a reference to Pakistan.
Election rhetoric combined with the decisive and strong imagery assiduously cultivated and promoted during the elections, gave rise to unrealistic presumptions that in the first 100 days of assuming office, much like Superman, Spider man and Bat man, all rolled into one, his government would confront China and drive them back from encroached areas, bring back Dawood Ibrahim in a Laden like covert operation, shut down the training camps in POK, cut off dialogue with Pak, send back all migrants from Bangladesh, standup both bilaterally and multilaterally for the Tamil population in Sri Lanka, and generally reverse the perception of weak India in the neighborhood.
None of this has happened, or is likely to happen. On the other hand India has reached out to its neighbors, in some cases against the wishes of its constituent states, developed a dialogue with China, the foreign minister will be visiting Bangladesh on the 25th of June and the prime minister, Japan and possibly China and the US for a UN Convention later this year during which he will hold bi lateral talks with several heads of state including the US.
There is an obvious covert disaffection, between the BJP Govt. and the United states, promoted by its treatment of the Indian Prime minister after 2002. That apart, China tops as India's trading partner, albeit the balance of trade in Chinese favor. Like India it has a huge market and if it is opened up to India, India can both compete and benefit in a very choosy market not dissimilar to India. However, it needs to displace the US and EU in terms of brands to make a dent. India-China trade has reached $49.5 billion with 8.7% share in India's total trade, while the US comes second at $46 billion with 8.1% share and the UAE third at $45.4 billion with 8% share during the first nine months of the current fiscal, a study has revealed.
India's Foreign Policy Challenges...
India's foreign policy is determined by its need to protect its territorial integrity, its territorial safety and its territorial economy. Each of these dimensions is a challenge, on the military front, on the Para military front and on the trade front.
Its territorial integrity is threatened on two fronts the North Western and north Eastern, by Pakistan and China respectively. Any erosion of territory, would be domestically disastrous, and globally catastrophical. Since it's obvious to all stake holders, that overt aggression will be repulsed, their strategy has shifted to targeting India's territorial safety, from within, promoting divisions among India's diversified demography, to ultimately impact the territorial integrity. India's territorial economy is strong, and has remained that way for a long time. It has helped India overcome many challenges on the other two fronts vz. territorial integrity and territorial safety. However it has taken a beating in the last two years and needs to regain its growth glory to prevent inroads into its body and heart. India, however also needs to keep its supply lines open, to meet energy and infrastructure needs vital for development.With these keystones guiding India's foreign policy, India will necessarily have to conduct its foreign policy over three concentric circles consisting of a. its neighborhood including Afghanistan and Burma, b. the Far East, US, Russia, China, Japan, the Middle East and c. The Americas except the US, the EU, Australasia. The Concentric Circles help India focus its efforts based on their importance in the relationship stakes.
India's apparent long term goal is to regain a rightful place in the comity of the G20, even earning itself a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, something that Russia, the US and China can only together ensure. Respect in the comity of nations would definitely translate into respect at home and in the neighborhood, which will in the long term, ensure both territorial integrity and territorial safety. High stakes indeed.
Its immediate foreign policy challenge however is in its neighborhood, where, in the south, it faces in the reverse, the situation that prevails in Kashmir; on the eastern front, the challenge of a porous border with Bangladesh, which encourages people from across the border to strive for better living conditions in India, and the trial and error expansionism of China. It was only yesterday that China's foreign minister on a visit to India, refused to commit to a renunciation of the stapled visa formula for travel to China, an indication of its wait and watch attitude; on its western coast, its waning influence in the Maldives, the influx of hawala money from the Mauritius and of course Pakistani covert aggression amid a divide in its establishment. In the north, is the political instability in Nepal, which has become the gateway for criminals and terrorism into India and encroachment of Chinese troops into inhospitable territory.
Geo Real Politic demands India deals with each of these countries separately with its three objectives in mind. However, partnerships have already been built and have strengthened over the years. Countries in the neighborhood, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have unwittingly submitted to Chinese influence through the acceptance of Chinese investments to maintain their own geopolitical integrity, sublimely submitting to Chinas own agenda which seeks to restrain India's influence in the region.
India's foreign policy plan?
Surrounded on all sides by inimical forces, India is now pursuing its own agenda with smiles and handshakes. The Prime Minister's first foreign visit to Bhutan is a clear indication of a local strategy to combat international pressures.
In the President's speech to Parliament, on Monday, a speech which reflected the Govt's foreign policy agenda, the President said that while the government was committed to work towards building a peaceful, stable and economically inter-linked neighborhood, "we will never shy away from raising issues of concern to us at a bilateral level. We emphasize that the future of shared prosperity can only be built on the foundation of stability in the region, which requires sensitivity to security concerns and an end to export of terrorism to neighbors."
It's a statement for the future. India seeks to be the sun around which it expects its neighborhood planets to revolve. To achieve this, it has to be strong, yet gentle, warm, yet firm, honest yet not harsh and most of all, non interfering and supportive. If it is to achieve this goal, India will have to build strategic partnerships with the US, Russia, China, and Japan in the second concentric circle to ensure that it has surrounded its neighborhood with an outer protective layer much like a chocolate wrapper.
Hopefully over the next decade, India's new foreign policy equations will help take it forward from weak handshakes to power hugs, albeit with a smile.
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