Wednesday 18 June 2014

Hurrah for rising prices

A hurrah for rising prices!

Hurrah for rising prices

 By Brian Fernandes   ¦     Jun 19, 2014
(This a satirical article and may be read with a pinch of salt)

Arun Jaitley, Finance minister, on Inflation:
“The year on year WPI inflation for the month of March has moved upto 6.01% as compared to 4.58% in the corresponding period last year. The increase is primarily on account of higher inflation in food articles, fuel and power costs. The Government is seized of the matter and is committed to ease supply side constraints. The rise in prices of food articles can also be attributed to withholding of stocks on account of apprehension of a weak monsoon. The State Government should take effective steps to ensure that speculative hoarding is discouraged. The Government is committed to take measures which will positively impact the GDP and result in higher growth than expected. I am hopeful that the inflation which is moving upwards now would eventually come down. The Government is watching the movement of rupee closely. The slight instability of rupee is essentially because of Iraq oil shocks and global fear of oil price rise. “

So whats new? Or news for that matter?  Same or similar words, different person,  different political party, and different political formation. One, a coalition of disparate economic ideologies, and the other more homogenous in its thinking.  Despite assertions to the contrary by the new government, the economic scenario and the responses to it have not changed. Because no matter how much one may will it, the law of nature as explained below prevails.

Everything rises. The tide, the temperature,  the sea level, the helium balloon, the airplane and our temper. It begins when we rise in the morning.  If we do not rise, we would not be able to sleep at night, or generate wealth for ourselves or others, now would we? If the tide did not rise, and only receded, one day, real estate prices will drop, as land availability expands, but at the cost of life itself;   If the temperature did not rise, there would be no seasons in the sun, would there now? And finally, if we did not lose our temper, would the recipient of our temper tantrums submit and improve, or retaliate, thus helping us learn from our mistakes? We take these rises lightly, because they have an attendant benefit for us – as human beings, we are selfish.  They follow the Newton’s laws of gravity and motion.

Oh, but prices rise too. The prices of our daily fare – vegetables, condiments, cereals, pulses, fuel, entertainment and our long term buys like real estate, vehicles, electronic Appliances and the like. We don’t accept these rises without getting agitated, without getting upset and blaming all and sundry. We curse the vendor, the trader, the government, and perhaps the farmer and the manufacturer to a lesser degree – because we understand their plight.  

Onions are about to bring tears to our eyes, all over again.  The farmers want a better price, the laborer want a rise on their carry charges per bag, and the traders are getting their pound of flesh from the consumer. As the layers of the onion, start to peel off, and bring tears to our eyes, the heavens have  begun to wipe our faces…Its tears promise to stop any day and will contribute in no small measure to the inflation figures of the new government.  Even as the God’s play with our tears, alternately peeling of the layers of an onion and wiping the tears dry with unexpected heat, human beings are in conflict over the Gods, power and territory – In Iraq, In Libya, In Syria, In Afghanistan, In Africa, the Balkans and closer to home in Pakistan. As much as we love our onions, we love their oil more – for its availability and our necessity as we grow and become rich.  Conflict in the middle east hurts us the most – unlike onions, we have very little crude oil and have to import a lot.  Conflict narrows availability and the oil price see saw takes off -  the rupee falls , and everything becomes dearer as fuel costs rise.

The Reserve Bank of India led by its governor gamely tries its best, tightly holding on to the reins of the interest horse, even as the star jockey, the central government,  raises taxes and cuts subsidies to control (not eliminate)  the deficit,  and the states are urged to rein in the hoarders, but to little avail.  The Gold standard has long gone, and it’s the golden gold and black gold that rise set the standard for the CAD and a BOP crises’.  Nothing new - we need what we want, not the other way around – want what we need – for then we would be content with our lot! The rising cycle, sometimes has an attached motor, sometimes it runs on pedal power, and is sometimes self propelled

So the rise is inevitable, and the fall near impossible – unlike the stock market. But is a price rise all bad? Or like the other rises does it have an attendant benefit? It does. Even as it empties your left pocket, it balances your trouser length by putting more money in your right pocket. Even as onions, vegetables, fuel and real estate drain your left pocket, what is left grows as income prospects rise – salaries, rents, income from professions and businesses bolster the right pocket.

A price rise like all other rises is not a monster, but a cuddly Godzilla. Embrace and enjoy and it will give you a rise,  cause no matter what any government says, prices will rise and if they do not,  you will quickly  become unhappy with the perpetual status quo. -  Not an ideal situation, though it may sound like one. A flat ECG cannot be good, can it? It will require an immediate Electric Cardio version.

Déjà vu’
The rupee sank to 60.23 rupees a dollar, its lowest level since May 6, and benchmark 10-year bond yields closed up 5 basis points at 8.65 percent after the government issued May wholesale inflation data on Monday. The annual pace was 6.01 percent, compared with 5.2 percent in April.
"The government is watching the movement of rupee closely," Jaitley said. "The slight instability of rupee is essentially because of Iraq oil shocks and global fear of oil price rise."
Jaitley is due to deliver his first budget in July and must balance a commitment to fiscal discipline with the government's aim of rapidly reviving economic growth.
The government "is committed to take measures which will positively impact the GDP and result in higher growth than expected. I am hopeful that the inflation which is moving upwards now would eventually come down," he said.
At the weekend, Modi warned that "bitter medicine" was needed to put India's economy back on track, without giving details
Conclusion
Price rise may , nay, will bring governments to their knees, and possibly even to their ankles, but so what  - a new government will arise and shine ready for new peaks and troughs, and we will hear the same words…. All over again.

All of those who’d like to see their income rise, arise, and raise your hands!

No comments:

Post a Comment