The IAF Preparedness challenge
The state of preparedness of the Indian Air force is a cause for concern, for the country at large and the Defence Minister in particular. The Air force should have had 42 squadrons of 20 planes each, but has 34 of which six comprise the ageing MIG-21 Aircraft which are to be phased out by 2016. The former Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, the senior most Indian military commander, had expressed serious concern at the declining fighter fleet of the Indian Air Force.
"The Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA) are critical. In case the MMRCA does not come to us by end of the 12th plan (March 2017) then our force levels start to go down rapidly. That is what we have to prevent. We have to maintain our force levels to certain levels," a concerned Chief of Air Staff had told reporters in New Delhi.
Consequently, despite allegations of intermediaries and the trepidation that precedes and follows a defense deal of this size, India, following due process, has decided to buy 126 Rafale aircraft from France’s Dassault Aviation. The negotiations have moved at a snail’s pace amid competitor lobbying and have reached the final lap. The French aerospace major Dassault Aviation had won the contract to supply the fighter jets to the IAF in 2012. The deal is said to be worth Rs. 9000 crores or 15 billion US dollars. At the recently concluded Indo-French exercise 'Garuda-5' in Jodhpur, France has fielded its frontline Rafale combat aircraft, which have been selected by India for its requirement of 126 multirole fighter planes.
In the recent past, the force has acquired important capabilities in the form of the C-130J Super Hercules transport planes and C-17 Globemaster heavy-lift aircraft along with Mi-17V5 choppers but lost one of its six C-130Js in an air crash. The Air chief had said that if the French deal is signed by this year, the first Rafale jet would be delivered in early 2017. Obviously any delay beyond that would be disastrous for India’s defense preparedness.
The new defense minister was briefed on the battle preparedness of the Indian Airforce on June 6th. In its briefing, the IAF is understood to have stressed on the need for procuring the 126 Rafale aircraft for strengthening its capabilities and also to replace its ageing fleet of MiG-21 and MiG-27 combat planes. The IAF is also learnt to have pushed for the early finalization of the deals to procure 22 Apache attack choppers and 15 Chinook heavy-lift helicopters for the force which sources say, was stalled by the previous government, in the final stages of approval, due to lack of funds.
Post briefing, IAF is bullish on the government clearing the contract the cost of which is expected to be Rs: 100,000 crore spread over 10 years. If they do get the required clearances, the contract may be signed within six months. The Contract is as complicated as it is massive. It involves, Offsets, Maintenance, Transfer of Technology and the work share between Dassault and India's Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd or HAL, liabilities and costs to maintain and run the 126 jets. The detail work in this regard is almost complete.
The worrying factor is Rafale’s competitors. They are trying hard to get the government to scrap the deal, and that would mean going back to the drawing board . Substituting it with the Indian Light Combat Aircraft Tejas is not a real option as it is yet to receive final operational clearance. As per the revised timelines, the first full Tejas squadron in the Initial Operational Clearance configuration will be in place only by 2016-2017. Tejas also, cannot compete with the Rafale’s range of 200 kms to 1000 Kms of the Rafale jet, which is necessary to combat Chinese aggression.
The Rafale deal is likely to be on top of the agenda during French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius's two-day visit to India, which starts today. The French minister will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley, who holds the twin portfolios of Defence and Finance. While most of the technical committees have concluded their negotiations with the French company and have handed in their reports, the committee looking into the overall costs, a crucial aspect of the deal, is awaited.
In the meanwhile the as the government prepares to open the nascent defense industry to foreign investment, Western governments are rushing to visit PM Modi. It is learnt that in the second week of July, Britain is likely tbe represented in Delh, by Secretary William Hague and Finance Minister George Osborne to promote the cause of the Euro fighter Typhoon. The Typhoon was shortlisted along with the Rafale jet before a decision was made in favor of the latter. As mentioned earlier, the Negotiations have been tortuous and Britain has still not lost hope on a reversal of the decision in their favor.
Last year India spent some $6 billion defence imports, and is now looking to liberalize its inward looking policy on private participation in defense production. The government has already allowed manufacturers to build more defense components without licenses, and made it easier for FDI to flow into the nascent sector- At present, foreign companies can only invest 26 per cent in Indian defence projects without committing to technology transfer, which has put off many investors. It is learnt that India's Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion has circulated a discussion note that proposes allowing up to 100 per cent foreign direct investment, or FDI, in defence production. Soures say the note has suggested allowing 100 per cent FDI in manufacturing of state-of-the art equipment, an official said. It also recommends a cap of 49 per cent for investments which do not involve transfer technology and a 74 per cent ceiling in such cases where the foreign investor is ready to share technology know-how.
India has to attend to its defense preparedness quickly. This would require, completing due processes expeditiously and firm decision making by the political executive. Defense Deals cannot be allowed to end up in the quagmire of scam allegations and counter allegations. A good beginning has been made, and let’s hope the adage “well begun is half done” serves our defense forces and in turn us, it’s citizens well over the next five years.
The state of preparedness of the Indian Air force is a cause for concern, for the country at large and the Defence Minister in particular. The Air force should have had 42 squadrons of 20 planes each, but has 34 of which six comprise the ageing MIG-21 Aircraft which are to be phased out by 2016. The former Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, the senior most Indian military commander, had expressed serious concern at the declining fighter fleet of the Indian Air Force. "The Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA) are critical. In case the MMRCA does not come to us by end of the 12th plan (March 2017) then our force levels start to go down rapidly. That is what we have to prevent. We have to maintain our force levels to certain levels," a concerned Chief of Air Staff had told reporters in New Delhi.
Consequently, despite allegations of intermediaries and the trepidation that precedes and follows a defense deal of this size, India, following due process, has decided to buy 126 Rafale aircraft from France’s Dassault Aviation. The negotiations have moved at a snail’s pace amid competitor lobbying and have reached the final lap. The French aerospace major Dassault Aviation had won the contract to supply the fighter jets to the IAF in 2012. The deal is said to be worth Rs. 9000 crores or 15 billion US dollars. At the recently concluded Indo-French exercise 'Garuda-5' in Jodhpur, France has fielded its frontline Rafale combat aircraft, which have been selected by India for its requirement of 126 multirole fighter planes.
In the recent past, the force has acquired important capabilities in the form of the C-130J Super Hercules transport planes and C-17 Globemaster heavy-lift aircraft along with Mi-17V5 choppers but lost one of its six C-130Js in an air crash. The Air chief had said that if the French deal is signed by this year, the first Rafale jet would be delivered in early 2017. Obviously any delay beyond that would be disastrous for India’s defense preparedness.
The new defense minister was briefed on the battle preparedness of the Indian Airforce on June 6th. In its briefing, the IAF is understood to have stressed on the need for procuring the 126 Rafale aircraft for strengthening its capabilities and also to replace its ageing fleet of MiG-21 and MiG-27 combat planes. The IAF is also learnt to have pushed for the early finalization of the deals to procure 22 Apache attack choppers and 15 Chinook heavy-lift helicopters for the force which sources say, was stalled by the previous government, in the final stages of approval, due to lack of funds.
Post briefing, IAF is bullish on the government clearing the contract the cost of which is expected to be Rs: 100,000 crore spread over 10 years. If they do get the required clearances, the contract may be signed within six months. The Contract is as complicated as it is massive. It involves, Offsets, Maintenance, Transfer of Technology and the work share between Dassault and India's Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd or HAL, liabilities and costs to maintain and run the 126 jets. The detail work in this regard is almost complete.
The worrying factor is Rafale’s competitors. They are trying hard to get the government to scrap the deal, and that would mean going back to the drawing board . Substituting it with the Indian Light Combat Aircraft Tejas is not a real option as it is yet to receive final operational clearance. As per the revised timelines, the first full Tejas squadron in the Initial Operational Clearance configuration will be in place only by 2016-2017. Tejas also, cannot compete with the Rafale’s range of 200 kms to 1000 Kms of the Rafale jet, which is necessary to combat Chinese aggression.
The Rafale deal is likely to be on top of the agenda during French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius's two-day visit to India, which starts today. The French minister will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley, who holds the twin portfolios of Defence and Finance. While most of the technical committees have concluded their negotiations with the French company and have handed in their reports, the committee looking into the overall costs, a crucial aspect of the deal, is awaited.
In the meanwhile the as the government prepares to open the nascent defense industry to foreign investment, Western governments are rushing to visit PM Modi. It is learnt that in the second week of July, Britain is likely tbe represented in Delh, by Secretary William Hague and Finance Minister George Osborne to promote the cause of the Euro fighter Typhoon. The Typhoon was shortlisted along with the Rafale jet before a decision was made in favor of the latter. As mentioned earlier, the Negotiations have been tortuous and Britain has still not lost hope on a reversal of the decision in their favor.
Last year India spent some $6 billion defence imports, and is now looking to liberalize its inward looking policy on private participation in defense production. The government has already allowed manufacturers to build more defense components without licenses, and made it easier for FDI to flow into the nascent sector- At present, foreign companies can only invest 26 per cent in Indian defence projects without committing to technology transfer, which has put off many investors. It is learnt that India's Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion has circulated a discussion note that proposes allowing up to 100 per cent foreign direct investment, or FDI, in defence production. Soures say the note has suggested allowing 100 per cent FDI in manufacturing of state-of-the art equipment, an official said. It also recommends a cap of 49 per cent for investments which do not involve transfer technology and a 74 per cent ceiling in such cases where the foreign investor is ready to share technology know-how.India has to attend to its defense preparedness quickly. This would require, completing due processes expeditiously and firm decision making by the political executive. Defense Deals cannot be allowed to end up in the quagmire of scam allegations and counter allegations. A good beginning has been made, and let’s hope the adage “well begun is half done” serves our defense forces and in turn us, it’s citizens well over the next five years.
On August 14th Midnight – India gained its independence, and on the 25th of June 1975, midnight, an Internal Emergency was imposed on India. It lasted for 21 months until 21st of March 1977. It allowed the then prime minister, Indira Gandhi, the authority to rule by decree, allowing elections to be suspended and civil liberties to be curbed.
A Study in Contrasts:
1. The suppression of NGO’s and environmental dissent, through restrictions on their funding.
While the Delhi University has voted to continue with the programme started last year, the UGC which was silent when it was introduced has woken up and threatened the DU with consequences if it refuses to follow its diktat - revert to the original 3 year degree. Officials said disobeying the UGC direction could spell trouble for Delhi University as it could stand to lose grants and degrees offered by the university could be de-recognized. This change of heart in the UGC has come about simultaneously with the change of Government or so it seems.
Criticism:
So whats new? Or news for that matter? Same or similar words, different person, different political party, and different political formation. One, a coalition of disparate economic ideologies, and the other more homogenous in its thinking. Despite assertions to the contrary by the new government, the economic scenario and the responses to it have not changed. Because no matter how much one may will it, the law of nature as explained below prevails.
You won't find it on twitter and you won't find it on Face book - India's foreign policy equations. They remain a mystery, even a month after the new government took over. It's not their fault. The previous government was apparently clueless for 10 years. Again, perhaps, not entirely their fault. Foreign policy is an evolving phenomena. It's like a living breathing being. It responds and occasionally reacts to events that end up being historic. The questions is, are these responses calibrated or impulsive and are they aligned to the long term goals that India has set itself, which also seem to be a classified secret. Foreign Relationship equations like those in algebra and calculus are complex and double sided, but almost never balanced, their inequality bracketed by smiles and handshakes. The challenge before India is to remove the brackets and move from weak handshakes to power hugs, and tilt the equations ever so slightly in India's favor. The endeavor must be to ensure that dialogue leads to QED.
None of this has happened, or is likely to happen. On the other hand India has reached out to its neighbors, in some cases against the wishes of its constituent states, developed a dialogue with China, the foreign minister will be visiting Bangladesh on the 25th of June and the prime minister, Japan and possibly China and the US for a UN Convention later this year during which he will hold bi lateral talks with several heads of state including the US.
Its territorial integrity is threatened on two fronts the North Western and north Eastern, by Pakistan and China respectively. Any erosion of territory, would be domestically disastrous, and globally catastrophical. Since it's obvious to all stake holders, that overt aggression will be repulsed, their strategy has shifted to targeting India's territorial safety, from within, promoting divisions among India's diversified demography, to ultimately impact the territorial integrity. India's territorial economy is strong, and has remained that way for a long time. It has helped India overcome many challenges on the other two fronts vz. territorial integrity and territorial safety. However it has taken a beating in the last two years and needs to regain its growth glory to prevent inroads into its body and heart. India, however also needs to keep its supply lines open, to meet energy and infrastructure needs vital for development.
With these keystones guiding India's foreign policy, India will necessarily have to conduct its foreign policy over three concentric circles consisting of a. its neighborhood including Afghanistan and Burma, b. the Far East, US, Russia, China, Japan, the Middle East and c. The Americas except the US, the EU, Australasia. The Concentric Circles help India focus its efforts based on their importance in the relationship stakes.